LEAP Energy, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Dr. Arnout JW Everts hold a PhD in carbonate sequence stratigraphy from VU University Amsterdam and bring 30 years of industry experience as geologist/geophysicist in exploration, development and technical management, starting in academia and thereafter with Shell International, Shell Malaysia, Petronas Carigali, Murphy Oil and as a founding partner and geoscience consultant with LEAP Energy. I have worked a wide variety of reservoir settings across the globe
Research Article
Analysing Covid-19 Epidemic Trajectories: are Countries Flattening the Curve?
Author(s): Arnout JW Everts*, Devaraj M Navaratnam, Sumitha Navaratnam and Danaraj Navaratnam
Introduction: We evaluated COVID19 epidemic trajectories of different countries in terms of relative trajectory steepness and anticipated epidemic duration, in other words “flatness of the curve”.
Methods: We used open-domain data on COVID-19 reported cases and deaths per country per day. A subset of 47 countries was analysed. Data were fitted with an analytical model following Gompertz equation. Uncertainty pertaining to the model forecasts was also quantified. To relate differences in epidemic trajectories of different countries to the mitigation approach taken by governments of those countries, we made use of the COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index developed and published by Oxford University and Blavatnik School.
Results: Acceptable quality fits were obtained for all the countries with R2 .. View more»