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Yunsheng Lou
Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Directorate of Training and Research, Kampala, Uganda
Publications
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Research Article
Dry Spells and Probability of Rainfall Occurrence over Tanzania, East Africa
Author(s): Dawido S. Magang*, Moses A. Ojara and Yunsheng Lou
Agriculture is the pillar of Tanzania’s economy, employing a large portion (65%) of the population, however, agriculture is affected by probability of rainfall distribution and dry spells occurrence. In this study, the Markov chain approach employed to analyze the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence by using daily datasets of varying length from 1981 to 2019. The length of the maximum dry spells was obtained by using the Instat statistics package (v3.36) based on the longest period of consecutive days with less than 1.0 mm (R<1.0 mm) and the length of a dry spells is the sum of the number of dry days in a sequence. The Mann-Kendall’s (MK) test employed for analyzing time series data and detecting trends of maximum dry spells and Sen’s slope to estimate the rate of change (Q2) in days per month. MK test results show insignifica.. View more»