Department of Tropical Medicine, Medical Microbiology and Pharmacology, University of Hawaii, Hawaii, USA
Vivek Nerurkar is currently working as a Department of Pharmacology, University of Hawaii; he extended his valuable service in field of Pharmacology and Toxicology for several years and has been a recipient of few awards and grants. His research interests reflect in his wide range of publications in various national and international journals.
Research
Predicting the Severity of Disease Progression in COVID-19 at the Individual
and Population Level: A Mathematical Model
Author(s): Narendra Chirmule*, Ravindra Khare, Pradip Nair, Bela Desai, Vivek Nerurkar and Amitabh Gaur
The impact of COVID-19 disease on health and economy has been global, and the magnitude of devastation is unparalleled
in modern history. Any potential course of action to manage this complex disease requires the systematic and efficient analysis
of data that can delineate the underlying pathogenesis. We have developed a mathematical model of disease progression
to predict the clinical outcome, utilizing a set of causal factors known to contribute to COVID-19 pathology such as age,
comorbidities, and certain viral and immunological parameters. Viral load and selected indicators of a dysfunctional immune
response, such as cytokines IL-6 and IFNα which contribute to the cytokine storm and fever, parameters of inflammation
d-dimer and ferritin, aberrations in lymphocyte number, lymphopenia, and neutralizing antibodies were included for the
analysis. The model .. View more»