Health Care : Current Reviews

MULTIPLE EBOLA VIRUS TRANSMISSION EVENTS: EVIDENCE FROM AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Global Health Economics Summit

July 25-26, 2016 Berlin, Germany

Nadhem Selmi

University of Sfax, Tunisia

Posters & Accepted Abstracts: Health Care: Current Reviews

Abstract:

In order to analyze the effects of the numbers of deaths caused by the Ebola virus volatility changes on the stability of the West African countries, we study the outbreak Ebola virus which took place in March 3, 2014 and ends in February 02, 2015. To do this, we have based our analytical approach on the analysis of the GARCH models. We used the EGARCH process to detect the asymmetric effect of volatility. To examine the international transmission of this volatility we employed the multivariate GARCHBEKK model. The results we have found show that there is consistent evidence of volatility changes in epidemic Ebola virus period; and shocks have permanent and asymmetric effects on volatility of the west African countries. However, we can also conclude that the correlations between numbers of deaths have significantly increased during the crisis period and this confirms that the Guinean Ebola virus is transmitted between different countries which prove the contagion phenomenon. The results we have found shows that over the full sample period shocks have permanent and asymmetric effects on volatility.

Biography :

Email: nadhem.selmi@yahoo.fr